A Retirement Risk That Never Shows Up in a Projection
Retirement calculators ask about your salary, your savings rate, and your target date. None of them ask whether you will spend three years helping a parent through dementia.
New research from the Employee Benefit Research Institute suggests that omission matters. In Issue Brief No. 661, released July 22, 2026, EBRI reported that nearly 3 in 10 Americans age 25 and older provided unpaid care in the past year. The findings come from the 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey, fielded January 2–28, 2026, which added an oversample of 492 caregivers to reach 701 caregiving workers and 305 caregiving retirees.
"Caregiving is often discussed as a family, health or workplace issue," said Craig Copeland, EBRI's director of wealth benefits research, "but this research shows it is also an important retirement security issue."
The Gaps Are Wide and Consistent
Compared with non-caregivers, caregivers reported:
- 34% hold less than $10,000 in savings and investments, versus 25% of non-caregivers
- 69% say debt is a problem, versus 57%
- 34% of caregiving workers provide direct financial support to the person they care for
- 20% have taken on new or additional debt because of caregiving
- 19% reduced how much they contribute to a retirement savings plan
- 54% say caregiving affects their ability to work the hours they want or need
- 64% report negative mental health effects
The confidence gap holds across income levels. Among households earning under $35,000, 75% of caregivers were not confident they would have enough money throughout retirement, versus 55% of non-caregivers. Even at $75,000 and above, 32% of caregivers lacked confidence versus 23% of non-caregivers. Higher income softens the blow — it does not remove it.
The most consequential number is about timing: 56% of caregiver retirees said they retired earlier than planned, compared with 44% of non-caregivers.
Why Early Exit Compounds
Leaving work early is a triple hit. You stop contributing, you start withdrawing sooner, and your portfolio loses the years of compounding that do the heaviest lifting.
There is a fourth hit that is easy to miss. Social Security calculates your benefit from your highest 35 years of indexed earnings. If you have fewer than 35 years of covered work, every missing year enters the formula as a zero and drags down your Average Indexed Monthly Earnings permanently — for you and, later, for a surviving spouse.
Practical Steps
Reduce contributions rather than stopping them. If cash flow tightens, cut to whatever level still captures the full employer match. Walking away from a match is a guaranteed loss.
Know the $1,000 lever before you raid the account. SECURE 2.0 permits one penalty-free emergency personal expense distribution of up to $1,000 per calendar year, self-certified, with no 10% early-distribution penalty under age 59½. You may repay it within three years; if you do not, you generally cannot take another for three years unless you replace the amount through contributions. It is a far better first stop than a full cash-out.
Pull your Social Security earnings record. Count your years of covered earnings. If you are short of 35, even part-time or self-employment income in later years replaces a zero and permanently lifts your benefit.
Plan for an earlier retirement date than you expect. Given the 56% figure, stress-testing your plan against an exit two or three years early is realistic planning, not pessimism.
Sources: EBRI Issue Brief No. 661 (July 22, 2026); EBRI/Greenwald Research 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey; InvestmentNews; Advisor Magazine; Congressional Research Service R46658; Spencer Fane; Mercer.