Retirement confidence just hit its highest level in the eleven-year history of BlackRock's Read on Retirement survey. That is the good news. The bad news is what happens when you check the confidence against the arithmetic.
The Gap in Dollars
The 2026 survey — conducted by Escalent across 453 plan sponsors, 1,312 workplace savers, and 300 retirees — found that 68% of workplace savers believe they are on track to retire with the lifestyle they want. That is up from 56% in 2023 and 64% in 2025, a 16-point climb since the survey began.
BlackRock's own projections of those same participants' balances tell a different story: the accounts are on pace to generate only 50% to 60% of the retirement income savers expect them to produce.
The generational breakdown makes the abstraction concrete:
- Gen X savers expect their workplace balances to provide $34,704 a year. BlackRock projects $17,450 — a shortfall of $17,254 annually, roughly half.
- Millennials expect $43,620 a year. The projection is $23,349 — a gap of $20,271.
Notably, Millennials reported higher confidence (73%) than Gen X (60%), despite facing the larger dollar gap.
"Confidence is growing, but for too many Americans, retirement reality won't match retirement expectations," said Jaime Magyera, Head of Retirement and Head of U.S. Wealth Advisory at BlackRock.
Why the Gap Exists — and May Widen
Participants themselves identified the shortfall's main driver. Savers said they need to contribute roughly 15% of pay to retire comfortably. The median contribution rate is 10%.
That five-point gap is not closing. More than half of savers expect to contribute less over the next 12 months, citing rising living expenses, family support obligations, and loan repayment. Caregiving is a significant pressure point: 43% of surveyed savers identified as caregivers.
The anxiety is already visible in the data. 64% of participants worry about outliving their savings, and 76% believe their generation will have less retirement income certainty than the one before it.
The gap is not evenly distributed. Women's confidence trails men's by 13 points, their workplace balances run roughly 40% lower, and — despite longer average lifespans — they are 44% less likely to adopt guaranteed income solutions.
Practical Takeaways
- Read the income number, not the balance number. Since 2021, the SECURE Act has required defined contribution plans to translate your balance into estimated monthly income at least annually — as both a single life annuity and a joint-and-survivor annuity. It is on your statement. That figure, not the account total, is the one to compare against your expectations.
- Check your contribution rate against 15%, not against zero. Employer match counts toward the total. If you are at 10% including match, you are at the survey median — which is the level producing these shortfalls.
- Use the 2026 limits if you have room. The 401(k) deferral limit rose to $24,500, with an $8,000 catch-up at 50+ and a $11,250 super catch-up for ages 60–63.
- If you must cut back, cut to the match, not below it. Contributing below the match threshold forfeits compensation outright.
- Treat lifetime income options as a planning question, not a product question. Among retirees surveyed, 89% said they would have benefited from guaranteed income and 92% said it made a bigger difference than expected. Employers are moving here too — 32% of plan sponsors intend to add guaranteed income to their default investment option.
Confidence is not a plan. The statement already contains the number that tests it.
Sources: BlackRock – 2026 Read on Retirement (11th annual, conducted by Escalent); BlackRock/Businesswire – Americans Look Beyond Savings to Turn Retirement Confidence Into Reality; PLANADVISER – Retirement Confidence, Preparedness Remain, per BlackRock; 401(k) Specialist – BlackRock Survey Finds Gap in Retirement Confidence and Reality; NAPA-Net – BlackRock Highlights Shift Toward Broader Retirement Investment Solutions; DOL/EBSA – SECURE Act Lifetime Income Illustration Interim Final Rule; IRS – 401(k) limit increases to $24,500 for 2026