The most popular fix for a thin retirement balance is also the cheapest to say out loud: I'll just work longer. It costs nothing today, it closes almost any projection gap on a spreadsheet, and a record share of American workers are now counting on it.
The 2026 EBRI/Greenwald Retirement Confidence Survey, released April 21, found 39% of workers expect to retire at 70 or later — or never. That is up from 30% a year earlier. Among people who have actually retired, 10% made it that far.
The Gap Runs Three Years Wide
Workers put their median expected retirement age at 65. Retirees report a median actual age of 62.
The tails are worse than the medians. Only 12% of workers plan to retire before 60; 29% of retirees were already out by then. Three in five retirees left before 65.
This is not a one-year anomaly. 46% of retirees said they left earlier than planned, up from 40% in the prior survey, while the share who retired roughly on schedule fell from 54% to 48%. The share retiring later than planned: 6%, unchanged. Every survey since the late 1990s has landed in the same 40–50% band.
Why People Leave Early
The reasons are mostly not financial, and mostly not chosen.
- Health problem or disability — 41%, up ten percentage points from 31% the year before.
- Corporate changes — downsizing, closure, reorganization — 35%.
- Being financially ready — 36%, down from 44%.
Read that ordering carefully. The happy reason is falling while the involuntary ones climb. A separate Allianz Life study of 1,000 respondents in January 2026 found 42% retired earlier than planned, with 21% pointing to job loss.
The health figure also tracks income. Among retirees with household income under $35,000, 49% cited health. Between $35,000 and $75,000, 31%. Above $75,000, 22%. The people with the least margin for an early exit are the most likely to face one.
Craig Copeland, EBRI's Director of Wealth Benefits Research, framed the broader drop in confidence — workers down six points to 61%, retirees down five to 73% — as "a mix of immediate financial pressures and long-term uncertainty."
Why This Breaks Plans So Badly
Working three extra years is not one lever. It is three, and they fail together.
You stop adding contributions. You start drawing on the portfolio sooner, so the money covers more years. And you lose the ability to delay Social Security, since a claim before full retirement age permanently reduces the monthly benefit. A plan that assumed all three simultaneously loses all three simultaneously — in a year you did not pick, often one where a health event is also raising your costs.
There is a particular cruelty in the timing. Under current rules, the largest catch-up contributions available — the $11,250 "super catch-up" for savers aged 60 to 63 — sit precisely in the window a median retiree has already left.
Practical Takeaways
- Run the plan at 62, not 65. If the projection only works when you retire at 67 or 70, you do not have a plan; you have a best case. Rerun it at the median and see what breaks.
- Treat working longer as upside, not as the fix. If you get those years, they are enormously valuable. Budget as though you might not.
- Front-load the catch-up years. Do not defer saving into your early 60s on the assumption you will be there to do it.
- Price the pre-Medicare gap. Leaving at 62 means roughly three years of health coverage to fund before Medicare eligibility at 65 — the single largest line item most early-exit budgets miss.
- Keep disability coverage and a real cash buffer. Health and layoff drove 76% of unplanned retirements. Those are insurable and bufferable risks, not planning assumptions.
- Protect employability. Skills, network, and the option of part-time or consulting income are what turn a forced exit at 61 into a partial one.
Sources: EBRI/Greenwald Research — 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey (released April 21, 2026; n=2,544, fielded January 2–28, 2026); EBRI news release and fact sheets; PLANADVISER — "Growing Number of Workers Retire Early, Involuntarily"; Allianz Life 2026 retirement study (n=1,000, January 2026); Yahoo Finance and TheStreet coverage of the 2026 RCS.