The World Bank published its Commodity Markets Outlook in October, and the precious metals headlines wrote themselves: gold down 8 percent in 2027, silver down 11 percent, platinum down 10 percent. The Bank's precious metals price index is projected to rise 40 percent in 2026, then decline 8 percent in 2027 and 6 percent in 2028.
If you are deciding right now whether to fund a metals position inside an IRA, those percentages will mislead you — not because they are wrong, but because of what they are measured against.
Percentages From Averages, Not From Here
Every number in that table is an annual average, and the 2026 average is the problem. Here is Table 1, in dollars per troy ounce:
| Metal | 2025 | 2026f | 2027f | 2028f |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $3,442 | $4,600 | $4,250 | $4,000 |
| Silver | $39.80 | $70.00 | $62.00 | $58.00 |
| Platinum | $1,278 | $1,950 | $1,750 | $1,610 |
Now compare those 2027 forecasts to Monday's market. Kitco quoted spot gold at $4,124.86 and spot silver at $52.682 on the morning of November 9, both up more than 1 percent intraday. Platinum ran roughly $1,556 to $1,573 across major dealer feeds the same day.
Set them side by side and the "declines" invert:
- Silver's $62.00 forecast for 2027 is about 18 percent above today's $52.68.
- Gold's $4,250 is about 3 percent above today's $4,125.
- Platinum's $1,750 is about 12 percent above today's ~$1,565. Even the 2028 figure of $1,610 is above spot.
The World Bank is not forecasting that your metals fall from here. It is forecasting that 2027 averages less than 2026 did.
Why the 2026 Average Is So High
Silver set an all-time high near $121 an ounce on January 29, 2026 — sources differ by a few cents on the exact print — after clearing the 45-year-old $50 record late in 2025. It has since lost well over half its value from that peak. The Bank notes silver fell 14 percent in the third quarter alone, with platinum down 10 percent over the same stretch, attributing the pullback to easing physical tightness, rising interest rates, and a stronger dollar.
A year that opens at $121 and sits near $53 in November can still average $70. That $70 is an accounting fact about 2026; it was never a price most buyers transacted at, and nobody who bought in March could have sold at it.
The Takeaways
Convert every forecast to a spread against spot before you act. A "decline" headline and a buy signal can be the same number. Do the subtraction yourself.
Check what period a forecast describes. Annual-average forecasts, year-end targets, and spot quotes are three different animals. In July, J.P. Morgan was projecting a $81/oz average for silver in 2026; the World Bank's October estimate is $70. Neither was a prediction about any single day.
Treat the January spike as a volatility lesson, not a benchmark. A metal that can round-trip from $50 to $121 and back under $53 inside thirteen months is not a stability sleeve. Size it as the volatile asset it is.
Note what the Bank still concedes. Even after projected declines through 2028, it expects gold to remain more than 75 percent above its 2021–25 average. The long-run case is not what this table undercuts — only the idea that a falling forecast means a falling price.
Sources: World Bank Group, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (Table 1 and Metals and Minerals chapter); Kitco News, November 9, 2026; Money Metals Exchange and MetalCharts silver record data; dealer spot quotes from Gainesville Coins, JM Bullion, APMEX, and BullionVault, November 9, 2026.