Silver Retreats as Geopolitical Tensions Ease
Silver held below $79 per ounce on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, remaining under pressure as investors cautiously await a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran before their two-week ceasefire expires. The white metal has plunged over 15% since the Iran conflict began, as hopes for peace reduce the geopolitical risk premium that had driven prices to record highs earlier this year.
Gold spot traded at $4,832.82, down 0.10%, while silver fell to $80.87, declining 0.40% as of April 20. Earlier in the week on April 17, gold had reached $4,867.92 per ounce with silver touching $82.52, but prices retreated as peace deal hopes strengthened.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Key Factor
A fragile ceasefire was declared on April 8, though the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows—remains in place. A U.S. naval blockade of the strait announced on April 13 initially strengthened the dollar, placing pressure on precious metals.
Reports that the Strait of Hormuz closed again drove crude oil sharply higher and revived inflation anxieties, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields simultaneously—a dual headwind for non-yielding bullion. However, further diplomatic discussions about returning to negotiations on April 14 weakened the greenback and fueled a modest recovery in precious metals.
Structural Silver Deficit Provides Floor
Despite the recent pullback, the silver market remains in a structurally tight position. According to market analysts, silver is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026. The main sources of demand growth continue to come from solar panels, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence data centers.
China's silver imports reached 206.76 tonnes in the first two months of 2026—the highest level in eight years—tightening global supply and providing fundamental support for prices even amid the recent selloff.
Major Banks Maintain Bullish Forecasts
Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about precious metals despite recent volatility. J.P. Morgan projects gold prices will push toward $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, with $6,000 per ounce a possibility longer term.
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, stated: "The trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted. We expect gold demand to push prices toward $5,000 per ounce by year-end 2026."
Central bank and investor demand for gold is projected to average 585 tonnes quarterly in 2026, well above the 350-tonne threshold historically needed for price appreciation.
Fed Policy Stance Supports Metals
The Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50-3.75%, down from previous peaks. The lower rate environment has reduced real yields, decreasing opportunity costs for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, noted: "We continue to have strong conviction that gold demand will have enough firepower to continue to push prices toward $5,000 per ounce in 2026."
The precious metals complex entered 2026 following a memorable 2025, in which gold traded above $4,000 per ounce and silver surpassed $60 per ounce—establishing new all-time highs for both metals. Gold prices climbed as much as 55% in 2025, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Global Research, Trading Economics, Kavout Market Lens, Fortune