American workers are heading into the back half of 2026 with the weakest retirement outlook in nearly a decade, according to new data released by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Greenwald Research. The 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey, the longest-running poll of its kind, finds that confidence has slipped to its lowest level since 2017 — a signal that the post-pandemic squeeze on household finances is now bleeding directly into long-term savings plans.
Confidence Slides as Costs Climb
Just 64% of Americans say they are confident they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement, down from 67% in 2025. The decline cuts across age cohorts and is most pronounced among workers still in the accumulation phase. Only 57% of workers now believe their savings will last their lifetime — a sobering result for a year in which equity markets have continued to set records.
Emergency readiness is fraying in parallel. Fewer than three in five workers said they have enough savings to handle an unexpected expense, down from 64% in 2025. That erosion matters for retirement math: households without a liquid cushion are far more likely to tap their 401(k) early, triggering taxes, penalties, and a permanent dent in compounded growth.
Debt Is the Headline Drag
The survey's most striking findings center on household debt. Sixty-five percent of workers say debt is a problem for their household, and one in four describe it as a major problem. Half of workers carry credit card balances, and nearly one in three report more than $25,000 in non-mortgage debt. With credit card APRs still sitting well above 20% even after the Fed's modest easing cycle, that debt service is competing directly with payroll deferrals.
EBRI also flagged two cost-of-living headwinds that workers say are actively crowding out savings:
- Health care: Nearly six in ten workers say medical costs are hurting their ability to save for retirement.
- Housing: Three in five workers say high housing costs are already eating into retirement contributions.
Social Security and Medicare Doubts Grow
Confidence in the public safety net continued to weaken. Only about half of workers say they are confident Social Security and Medicare will continue to provide benefits of equal value in the future. That skepticism dovetails with the Congressional Budget Office's revised projection that the OASI trust fund will be depleted by 2032 — a year earlier than the Social Security Administration's own forecast — putting an automatic benefit reduction in play absent congressional action.
The doubts are coloring planning behavior. Workers who distrust the program's future value are more likely to delay claiming, work longer, or shift deferrals toward Roth vehicles in anticipation of higher future tax rates.
What It Means for Plan Sponsors
Despite the gloomy macro readings, workplace satisfaction held up: separate coverage from ASPPA and NAPA-Net of the same survey noted that workers remain broadly satisfied with their employer-sponsored plans, citing auto-enrollment, employer match, and target-date fund defaults as meaningful supports. The disconnect — strong plan satisfaction alongside weak overall confidence — suggests that workers see their 401(k) as working, but worry it will not be enough against the backdrop of debt, health care, housing, and entitlement uncertainty.
The survey was conducted online from January 2 through January 28, 2026, polling 2,544 Americans aged 25 and older, including 1,007 workers and 1,045 retirees, in partnership with Greenwald Research.
Bottom Line
The 2026 reading lands as a warning: even with markets at highs and 401(k) limits rising to $24,500, the savings story is increasingly being written on the liability side of the household balance sheet. For workers approaching their catch-up years, the message from EBRI is that confidence is no longer flowing from market returns alone — it requires getting debt, health care, and housing under control first.
Sources: EBRI 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey (April 2026 release); Greenwald Research; ASPPA; NAPA-Net.