Precious metals extended their rebound Friday, with the live gold spot price reaching $4,188.57 per ounce and silver trading between $61.19 and $63.18 across major dealer feeds, according to Forbes Advisor and CNBC Select quotes for July 3, 2026. The two-day rally has erased most of the damage that pushed gold to an eight-month low earlier in the week and lifted silver off seven-month lows.
Weak Payrolls Rewrite the Fed Path
The trigger was Thursday's June employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, well short of the roughly 110,000 economists had forecast and a sharp pullback from May's 172,000 gain. It was the slowest pace of hiring in four months.
Rate-hike bets collapsed almost immediately. According to Kitco News, swap markets are now pricing an 18% probability of a July rate hike, compared with roughly 33% earlier in the week. Cryptobriefing's read of the same data noted the odds were effectively cut in half within a single session. The Bloomberg-tracked dollar index and Treasury yields fell in tandem, providing the tailwind bullion needed to reverse a punishing June.
Gold's Technical Setup
Gold spot climbed more than 2% on Thursday to change hands above $4,130 an ounce before adding another leg higher into Friday's session. Analysts cited by Kitco described the metal as caught in a technical no-man's land — trudging above the 200-day moving average near $4,340 and capped for now below the 50-day moving average around $4,730.
For context on how far bullion has traveled, the all-time high of $5,597.23 was set on January 29, 2026. Despite the recent volatility, J.P. Morgan Global Research analysts reiterated their call that gold can push $6,000 per ounce by year-end, with $6,300 possible in 2027, contingent on Fed policy and the pace of geopolitical de-escalation.
Silver Snaps Back
Silver's move was even more dramatic in percentage terms. Trading Economics quoted the metal at $62.57 on July 3, up 2.69% on the day. Silver has still fallen 15.25% over the past month, but it remains 69.39% higher than a year ago, reflecting the sharp industrial and investment demand that carried the metal through the first half of 2026.
Oil and Geopolitics Add a Tailwind
Kitco flagged a second driver for the precious-metals bid: easing energy prices. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to recover as US-Iran talks make progress, taking pressure off the crude complex and, by extension, off the energy-driven inflation channel that had been keeping the Fed hawkish. Lower oil, softer jobs, and a weaker dollar are a familiar recipe for a metals rally.
What Comes Next
The July FOMC meeting now looms as the pivotal test. If the labor market continues to cool and June's number is not revised meaningfully higher, the market's shift away from hike pricing has more room to run — a scenario Yahoo Finance framed as the "less restrictive path" investors began pricing this week. A hot CPI print, however, could reintroduce hike risk quickly given the Fed's recent hawkish tilt.
For now, gold and silver are enjoying the classic playbook: a softer economy, a softer dollar, and one less reason to fear a summer rate hike.
Sources: Forbes Advisor (Gold Price Today: July 2, 2026), CNBC Select (Price of gold today, July 2, 2026), Kitco News (Gold rebounds above $4,100 as soft jobs data curbs Fed rate-hike bets), Trading Economics (Silver spot quote July 3, 2026), Yahoo Finance (Gold prices today, Thursday, July 2, 2026), J.P. Morgan Global Research (Gold Price Predictions for 2026 and 2027), Cryptobriefing (Gold holds gains above $4,100 as weak US jobs data cuts Fed rate hike odds in half).