U.S. stock futures rallied Monday morning as crude oil prices tumbled more than 7% after Washington and Tehran paused hostilities over the weekend, clearing the runway for the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 1%, S&P 500 futures added 0.9%, and Nasdaq-100 contracts jumped roughly 1.4%, according to Yahoo Finance's Monday session preview.
The move followed a weekend cease in fighting that traders read as a potential inflection point in a two-week conflict that had lifted Brent crude above $92 last week. Brent September futures fell 6.4% to around $90.60 a barrel by early Monday, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 5.7% to $84.10, per CNBC's morning coverage. The drop in energy prices flipped the inflation-versus-growth narrative that had weighed on risk assets earlier in the month.
Fed Decision Headlines a Packed Calendar
The Federal Open Market Committee wraps its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with markets overwhelmingly pricing in a hold at the current 3.50%–3.75% target range. Attention will pivot immediately to Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, where investors want fresh guidance on whether a September hike remains on the table after the recent energy shock. FXEmpire noted this week's meeting is "the last chance for the Fed to reset expectations" before the summer data cycle turns.
Alongside the FOMC decision, the economic calendar is thick. Thursday brings the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP, with consensus looking for annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in Q1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis release is expected to reflect a boost from AI-related capex, World Cup–related spending, and resilient household consumption. Friday's June personal income and spending report will include the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — with analysts penciling in a 3.4% year-over-year print and a monthly reading of 0.2% or lower needed to keep disinflation intact.
Big Tech Delivers the Marquee Earnings
The week is loaded with megacap results. Microsoft and Meta Platforms report Wednesday after the close, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Also on deck: Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Ford Motor, and PayPal.
The bar is high. FactSet is projecting a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 38% for S&P 500 companies in the second quarter — a print that, if realized, would rank among the strongest since the post-pandemic reopening. Cloud growth at Microsoft, ad-revenue durability at Meta, and any commentary on AI-related capex payback across the four names will be scrutinized after weeks of investor debate over whether spending is finally producing returns.
What to Watch
Three things will drive the tape by Friday. First, the oil-price trajectory: if Brent holds below $90, the near-term inflation impulse fades and Fed dovishness gets easier to price in. Second, Warsh's press conference tone — hawkish nods on services inflation or wages could shave into equity gains even with rates on hold. Third, the Big Tech earnings sequence, where forward guidance will matter more than backward-looking beats given the S&P 500's proximity to record territory.
With Boeing, Exxon, and Chevron also reporting mid-week, industrial and energy signals will provide a cross-check on the tech-heavy narrative. A clean sweep — soft PCE, a measured Fed, and upside earnings surprises — could extend the summer rally into August. Any single stumble, whether from the Fed podium or a megacap guidance cut, is likely to reset positioning fast in a market pricing near-perfect execution.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (Stock market today, Monday July 27, 2026), CNBC (Dow futures rally as oil prices fall after U.S. and Iran pause attacks), FXEmpire (The Week Ahead: Fed, GDP and Big Tech Earnings), FactSet (Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth estimate).