Precious metals took another leg lower on Wednesday, with gold sinking to its weakest level in more than a month after minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting confirmed that most policymakers still expect to raise interest rates again before the end of 2026.
Spot gold fell about 1.5%, or roughly $61, to approximately $4,103 an ounce, according to Trading Economics data — the lowest in over a month. Silver fared worse, dropping roughly 2.8% to about $59.65 an ounce, its lowest level since early August.
A Month of Steady Erosion
The declines extend a pronounced autumn slide. Gold has fallen about 5.8% over the past month, while silver has shed roughly 9.3%. Yahoo Finance noted that gold has not opened above $4,300 since September 25, a sign of how quickly the metal's summer momentum has faded.
Both metals remain higher year over year. Gold is up about 1.5% from a year ago, while silver — despite its sharper recent pullback — is still roughly 22% above where it traded last October.
What the Fed Minutes Actually Said
The minutes of the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, showed the Committee voted unanimously to lift the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, with no members voting against the action.
Critically for metals investors, the document stated that "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end." The Committee also reiterated that "inflation remains elevated," citing pressures tied to geopolitical developments and AI-related investment.
On the labor side, participants "judged that labor market conditions were stable and generally viewed the labor market as close to maximum employment," with the unemployment rate largely unchanged — language that gives the Fed little reason to pause its tightening on employment grounds.
Rate Expectations and the Opportunity Cost Problem
Traders had entered the session cautious. "There is also an element of caution ahead of the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes later today," ActivTrades chief executive Ricardo Evangelista told Reuters, adding that "until there is greater clarity on that front, there is probably some reluctance to take larger positions in gold."
As of Wednesday morning, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting holding above 78%, while odds of a quarter-point increase at the December meeting sat near 69%. Following the minutes, Trading Economics reported December hike pricing firming above 80%.
The mechanics are straightforward: higher-for-longer policy rates and a firmer dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. With Treasury yields at levels not seen in more than two decades, that headwind has been relentless.
Equities Pulled Back Too
The risk-off tone was not confined to metals. After record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 341 points, or about 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each slipped about 0.2% as bond market pressure continued to build.
For gold bulls, the setup into year end is now clearer, if not more comfortable. If December delivers what the Fed has signaled and proves to be the cycle's final hike, the real-yield headwind that has dogged bullion since September would begin to ease — but not before.
Sources: Federal Reserve (September 15–16, 2026 FOMC minutes), Trading Economics (gold and silver price data), Yahoo Finance, Reuters (via CNBC), CME Group FedWatch tool