Americans voted Tuesday against a backdrop of economic data that made the Federal Reserve's December decision harder, not easier. Two reports landed at 10 a.m. ET, and both came in hot.
Openings Rose Where Forecasters Expected Nothing
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings climbed to 7.523 million in September, up 333,000 from a revised August level of 7.190 million. The openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. Consensus had been near 7.11 million — essentially flat — so the print was a genuine surprise rather than a rounding beat.
The internals were stronger than the headline. Quits jumped 321,000 to 3.365 million, lifting the quits rate to 2.1%, its first reading above 2.0% since June 2025. Hires rose 131,000 to 5.402 million. Layoffs and discharges fell 127,000 to 1.641 million, a rate of 1.0%.
That combination matters because it is the one the Fed watches for wage pressure. Workers quit when they believe a better offer exists; employers stop firing when they expect to need the headcount. CNBC put the ratio at 1.05 openings per available unemployed worker.
"There are more job openings than unemployed people in the United States right now," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CNBC, calling it "an encouraging sign" despite inflation and fuel-price pressure.
Not everyone read it that way. Cory Stahle of Indeed Hiring Lab titled his analysis "Eerily Quiet," arguing that separations have "barely moved" for two and a half years and that stability is not the same as dynamism. His read: the market is good for people who already have jobs and difficult for everyone else, with "paychecks trailing inflation and little leverage to push for a raise."
Factories Beat Too
The Census Bureau's September full report, released the same hour, showed new orders for manufactured goods up $12.2 billion, or 1.8%, to $677.2 billion — a third straight monthly gain, against a 1.2% forecast. August was revised up to +0.3% from +0.1%.
Unfilled orders rose 0.9% to $1.6238 trillion, now higher in 26 of the past 27 months. Shipments gained 1.3% to $668.5 billion.
Reuters attributed the strength to a 28.3% jump in civilian aircraft bookings, with machinery up 1.5% and computers and electronic products up 0.8% — and up 14.9% from a year earlier, the AI buildout showing through clearly. Core capital goods orders, the business-investment proxy, rose 0.6%.
Rates Repriced Fast
Bond markets took the hawkish side. The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 4.95% on Tuesday, about four basis points above the prior session, according to Trading Economics.
The FatTail RateWatch Tool, reading CME fed funds futures, put the probability of a hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting at 85.2% as of 2:35 p.m. ET Tuesday — up from 76.3% a day earlier. Other snapshots were lower; fed funds futures were quoted near 72% before the data. Readers should treat any single probability as a timestamp, not a forecast.
Friday's October employment report is the next real test. CNBC pegs consensus at roughly 59,000 jobs after September's 29,000.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data via the BLS public API; U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, September 2026 full report (CB 26-170), released November 3, 2026; CNBC; Reuters via Investing.com; Indeed Hiring Lab; FatTail RateWatch; Trading Economics.