Two labor-market reports landed Thursday morning, and both pointed the same direction: almost nobody is being fired. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 6,000 to 189,000 in the week ending October 31, the Labor Department said, against a consensus near 197,000. The prior week was revised up 1,000 to 195,000, and the four-week moving average slipped 2,250 to 194,750.
Reuters characterized the 189,000 reading as matching a 57-year low. That framing deserves a caveat — claims printed 187,000 in July, so this is a return to the floor rather than a new one — but the floor itself is the story. Unadjusted filings totaled 176,698 last week versus 216,026 in the comparable week of 2025.
The Insured Unemployment Rate Is the Tell
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held at 1.1% for the week ending October 24, down from 1.3% a year ago. That is the share of covered workers actually collecting benefits, and it is close to the lowest reading the series has produced.
Continuing claims did tick up, rising 23,000 to 1,718,000, with the prior week revised down 6,000 to 1,695,000. The four-week average rose just 1,000 to 1,709,500. That is the one soft edge in the release: people who lose jobs are taking longer to find new ones, even as fewer people lose jobs in the first place.
Challenger: 43,994 Cuts, Down 71%
Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 43,994 announced job cuts in October, up 2% from September's 43,281 but down 71% from the 153,074 announced in October 2025 — the lowest October total since 2023. Year to date, employers have announced 617,189 cuts, 44% below the 1,099,500 tallied through October last year and the lowest ten-month figure since 2022.
Market and economic conditions were the top cited reason at 16,407 cuts, followed by closings at 10,250. Cuts attributed specifically to AI totaled 1,265, the lowest monthly figure this year. Technology announced roughly 5,600 cuts in the month, though the sector still leads 2026 with more than 170,000.
Hiring plans told the other half of the story: 444,692 positions announced in October, up 57% year over year, with seasonal hiring reaching 470,400 through October, a 26% increase.
"This is a low-fire environment," said Andy Challenger, the firm's chief revenue officer. "Employers are holding on to the workers they have heading into the holidays, and the hiring they are announcing is largely short-term, seasonal work."
What It Means for December 8–9
The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both dissenting in favor of an immediate quarter-point increase. The case for waiting rested on labor-market risk. Thursday's data makes that case harder to argue.
Rate-hike odds reflect it. CME FedWatch showed roughly 81.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting as of Thursday, though readings on the same meeting ranged from the low 70s to 81% depending on the instrument and the snapshot time — worth remembering before treating any single figure as the market's view.
Markets opened mixed as the post-midterm rally cooled. The Dow had surged 3.03% Wednesday to 53,356.12 — its best post-midterm session in 44 years, per The Motley Fool — alongside a 1.58% gain for the S&P 500 to 7,688.62 and 1.44% for the Nasdaq Composite to 25,736.51. Thursday morning the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.907%, gold traded near $4,137.90 and WTI crude firmed to about $89.34.
Sources: U.S. Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release (November 5, 2026); Challenger, Gray & Christmas October 2026 Job Cuts Report; Federal Reserve FOMC statement (October 28, 2026); Reuters via Investing.com; Yahoo Finance; The Motley Fool; CME FedWatch via KuCoin.