Precious metals climbed Monday as crude collapsed, with traders positioning ahead of an inflation report that will be missing the number they would normally lead with.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,123.46 an ounce and December COMEX futures gained a matching 1.4% to $4,132.70, Reuters reported. Trading Economics quoted gold at $4,124.53, up $54.12 on the day from Friday's $4,070.10 close. Silver moved harder, up 2.5% to $53.15 in the Reuters snapshot; Fortune had quoted it at $52.76 at 7:30 a.m. Eastern, a 93-cent gain. Platinum rose 1.3% to $1,553.23 and palladium 2.1% to $1,045.11.
The move retraces part of a brutal autumn rather than breaking new ground. Gold bottomed at $3,870 on Oct. 30 and remains down 1.1% over the past month and essentially flat on the year. Silver is off 12.5% in a month and sits at less than half its January record of $121.64.
Oil Did the Work
The proximate cause was crude, not the metals themselves. Brent fell 4.7% toward $93.71 a barrel, its lowest since Aug. 31, extending the prior week's 13.3% slide. WTI dropped 4.4% to $86.84. The selling followed President Trump's remark that he was highly unlikely to order further strikes on Iran while negotiations continue, and reports that Persian Gulf crude exports have begun recovering despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz security risks.
"Trump's more conciliatory tone toward Iran is helping keep a lid on oil prices, which in turn eases some of the inflation pressure that had been weighing on the metal along with a modest pullback in the dollar," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
The Report With a Hole in It
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October CPI on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern — and for the first time this cycle, there will be no headline 12-month inflation rate. Last year's federal shutdown stopped data collection cold. "BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data," the agency's shutdown FAQ states, adding that it "will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available."
That leaves the monthly change carrying the entire signal. Consensus looks for +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, down from September's +0.6% and +0.3%. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, updated Nov. 6, is slightly cooler at +0.24% and +0.21%.
December Is Close to Priced
A one-tenth miss now moves policy. CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting near 81% Monday, up from roughly 71% before Friday's payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.1%. Snapshots vary — other readings over the weekend ranged from Kalshi's 78% on Nov. 7 to 76.8% on the CME tool — but the direction is unambiguous.
Waterer flagged the asymmetry for bullion: "Any hot readings would likely firm the dollar and lift the odds of a December rate hike, which would quickly put gold back on the defensive." Producer prices follow Friday.
Sources: Reuters (via Business Recorder, "Gold rises over 1% as softer oil prices ease inflation worries," Nov. 9, 2026); Bureau of Labor Statistics, "2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Consumer Price Index" FAQ; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland inflation nowcasting (as of Nov. 6, 2026); Fortune, "Current price of silver as of Monday, Nov. 9, 2026"; Trading Economics commodity quote pages (gold, silver, Brent, WTI); CME Group FedWatch; FinanceFeeds.