Gold Holds Near $4,750 Ahead of Critical Peace Talks
Gold prices steadied near $4,750 per ounce on Thursday as formal US-Iran negotiations commenced in Islamabad under Pakistani mediation. The precious metal has recovered from its recent lows after the two-week ceasefire announced on April 8 triggered significant market repositioning across asset classes.
According to Fortune, spot gold was trading at $4,743 per ounce as of April 9, down $59 from the previous session but still up an impressive $1,568—or 49.39%—compared to one year ago. The metal has retreated 6.85% from its one-month high of $5,092 as geopolitical risk premiums have begun to unwind.
Ceasefire Sparks Relief Rally, Then Consolidation
The ceasefire announcement on April 8 triggered an immediate 3% surge in gold prices to $4,850 per ounce, according to Kitco News. Front-month Comex gold for April rose nearly 2% to $4,749.50 an ounce, marking its third consecutive daily gain and leaving the metal up 9.8% year-to-date.
The deal was brokered by Pakistan just hours before President Trump's self-imposed deadline for strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Trump stated the 10-point peace proposal from Iran provides "a workable basis on which to negotiate."
BMO Capital Markets noted that "metals are now on firm ground to see further upside as long as positive conflict news flow continues."
Silver Outperforms With 7% Surge
Silver significantly outperformed gold during the ceasefire rally, surging nearly 7% to touch $77.65 per troy ounce in London—its highest level since March 18. The white metal currently trades around $74 per ounce, representing substantial recovery from its conflict-era lows.
Platinum group metals also posted broad gains, with palladium advancing 6.31% to $1,586.34 per ounce as easing geopolitical risk revived industrial demand expectations. Platinum reclaimed the $2,000 threshold, rising 3.82% to $2,049.
Dollar Weakness Supports Precious Metals
The US dollar index fell to one-month lows near 98.60, down approximately 1% on the session, as traders unwound conflict-era safe-haven dollar positions. The weaker greenback provided additional tailwinds for bullion prices.
Carsten Fritsch at Commerzbank observed: "The sharp fall in oil prices is leading to an easing of inflation risks... a fall in bond yields from which gold, as a non-interest-bearing investment, benefits. Whether this remains the case depends on whether a lasting peace settlement is found in the coming two weeks or whether there is a renewed escalation thereafter."
Analysts Warn of Fragile Peace
Despite the relief rally, analysts caution that significant risks remain. Pratibha Thaker, regional director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, described the ceasefire as "a huge relief" but warned: "What we are seeing right now is a pause in the conflict, rather than any kind of lasting resolution. It is a very fragile arrangement."
Michael Brown of Pepperstone echoed these concerns: "The significant risk here is that the ceasefire doesn't hold, that we then see a re-escalation in the conflict."
Since the US-Iran war began on February 28, gold has lost over 11% as soaring oil prices dampened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Price Outlook Remains Bullish Long-Term
Despite near-term uncertainty, institutional forecasts for gold remain constructive. Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 per ounce, while JPMorgan sees potential for $6,300 and UBS projects $5,600. Some analysts suggest gold could reach $5,900 per ounce by late 2026 if geopolitical stability holds.
For now, all eyes remain on Islamabad as negotiators work to transform a fragile ceasefire into lasting peace.
Sources: Fortune, Kitco News, Bullion Vault, The Gold Forecast, Commerzbank, Economist Intelligence Unit, Pepperstone, BMO Capital Markets