Gold opened the final trading day of the second quarter near a seven-month low, with spot prices changing hands at $4,014.56 per ounce at 9 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday — a loss of $33.35 from the same time a day earlier, according to Fortune. The metal briefly slipped beneath the psychologically important $4,000 level last week for the first time since November, capping a sharp reversal from earlier 2026 highs above $4,500.
Silver has been hit even harder. The white metal was quoted at $58.69 per troy ounce on June 30, a modest 0.72% rebound from the prior session but well below the $60 threshold it lost last Wednesday for the first time since December 2025. Yahoo Finance reports silver has shed nearly 20% of its value since the start of the year, dramatically underperforming gold.
A Hawkish Pivot from the Powell-Less Fed
The selloff accelerated after the Federal Reserve's June 16–17 meeting, where policymakers held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive meeting. The bigger story, however, was the so-called "dot plot." Nine of the 18 officials on the panel signaled they favor at least one rate hike before year-end, according to CNBC.
In an unprecedented move, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh withheld his own personal rate projection from the quarterly forecast — the first sitting chair in 14 years to sit out the exercise. The opacity has unnerved bond and gold traders alike. Markets are now pricing roughly a 66% probability of at least one rate hike by December and a 65% chance of a move as early as September, per investingnews.com.
"Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold," analysts at Trading Economics noted, pointing to the stronger US dollar that has accompanied the hawkish repricing.
Iran Ceasefire Removes a Safe-Haven Bid
Geopolitics have also turned against the metals. The US and Iran announced a ceasefire this week, deflating the war-risk premium that had carried gold to record highs in May. While the truce is being welcomed by equity investors — the S&P 500 has rallied off the news — it has stripped bullion of its safe-haven tailwind at precisely the moment monetary policy is tightening.
Rising energy prices tied to the earlier Middle East conflict had already erased expectations of Fed rate cuts this year, leaving gold caught between two bearish forces: less geopolitical fear and more hawkish policy.
Analysts Still See a Higher Year-End
Despite the pullback, several major banks remain constructive on the longer-term thesis. Macquarie is forecasting an average 2026 spot gold price of $4,641 per ounce, which would represent a 35% year-on-year gain. Forbes reported that even after the recent slide to seven-month lows, gold remains more than $700 per ounce higher than it was a year ago.
For silver, the goldsilver.com June outlook framed the current correction as "the setup" rather than the end of the cycle, citing tight industrial supply and persistent investment demand. Still, with the Fed's September meeting now looming as the next major catalyst, traders are bracing for additional volatility before any sustained recovery takes hold.
Sources: CNBC, Fortune, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, GoldSilver, Investing News Network