U.S. equity markets head into the final session of the second quarter near record highs, with traders awaiting a fresh read on consumer confidence at 10 a.m. ET that could shape the second-half narrative for the Federal Reserve and the household-spending outlook.
The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,440.43, up 86.41 points, or 1.18%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 522.53 points, or 2.07%, to finish at 25,820.15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 307 points, or 0.59%, to a fresh record close of 52,183. In early trading Tuesday, the S&P 500 inched up 0.03%, the Nasdaq gained 0.29%, and the Dow eased 0.24%, according to TheStreet.
Sentiment Snaps Back From Record Low
The University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index for June was revised to 49.5, up from a preliminary 48.9 and well above May's 44.8 — which was the lowest reading on record. The improvement was attributed in part to moderating gasoline prices, with average U.S. pump prices recently falling below $4 per gallon after dropping more than 50 cents over the prior month.
Inflation expectations, a critical input for Fed policy, also continued to ease. Year-ahead expectations slipped to 4.6% from 4.8% in May, while the five-year outlook fell to 3.4% from 3.9%. The Conference Board's separate Consumer Confidence Index is scheduled for release this morning, with the prior reading near 92.8.
Q1 GDP Anchors the Backdrop
The Bureau of Economic Analysis's third estimate for first-quarter GDP showed the U.S. economy expanding at a 2.1% annual rate, an acceleration from the 0.5% pace logged in the fourth quarter of 2025. Investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending all contributed to growth.
Labor market data has been firmer than expected. Average monthly private payroll growth in the first quarter ran more than 2.5 times the 2025 monthly average, while average hourly earnings rose 3.5% in the year through March — continuing the gradual cooling that began in the second quarter of 2025.
The advance estimate for Q2 GDP is not due until July 30, leaving today's confidence print and Friday's data flow as the primary near-term catalysts.
Earnings Carry the Quarter
With 97% of S&P 500 companies having reported, FactSet now pegs blended year-over-year earnings growth for the most recent reporting period at 28.6%, more than double the 13.1% analysts had projected on March 31. Information Technology led all sectors with 54.3% earnings growth, although stripping out NVIDIA and Micron pulls the sector's growth rate down to 30.1%. Communication Services tells a similar story: the headline 48.9% growth rate flips to a 4.1% decline once Alphabet and Meta are excluded — underscoring the continued concentration of profit growth among a handful of mega-cap names.
Geopolitical Tailwind Holding
Markets continue to draw support from the Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17 by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which extended the U.S.–Iran ceasefire by 60 days. Crude oil prices remain below $80 per barrel following the deal, contributing to the easing of headline inflation pressures captured in this month's sentiment data. Talks are scheduled to resume Tuesday, although Vice President JD Vance delayed his Switzerland trip late last week, leaving the durability of the framework an open question.
What to Watch
Beyond the 10 a.m. confidence release, attention turns to month-end portfolio rebalancing flows, which historically can amplify moves on the final session of a quarter. The combination of a record-setting tape, easing inflation expectations, and a stronger-than-feared earnings backdrop has set a high bar for the second half — one that the next round of payrolls and CPI data will quickly test.
Sources: TheStreet (Stock Market Today, June 30, 2026); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q1 2026 GDP third estimate); University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (June 2026 final); The Conference Board (Consumer Confidence release schedule); FactSet via Advisor Perspectives; Yahoo Finance and CNBC coverage of U.S.–Iran agreement.