Precious metals climbed to fresh weekly highs Friday morning as a third straight session of falling crude prices drained the inflation premium that had dominated trading all month.
Gold changed hands at $4,421.40 an ounce at 6:46 a.m. ET, after opening the session at $4,381.60 — down 0.4% from Thursday's close — and running as high as $4,439.80, according to Yahoo Finance. Silver made the bigger move, opening at $65.76 and surging to $67.47 by 7:05 a.m. ET, with an intraday peak of $67.89.
Oil Retreat Resets the Inflation Trade
The catalyst sits in the crude complex. Brent traded at $98.51 a barrel Friday morning, down from more than $99 Thursday and above $107 on Wednesday — a roughly 6% slide from the week's highs, per Saxo Bank.
That reversal traces back to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, shut after a drone strike and attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent up almost 9% in a week. Riyadh has since said it can restore roughly half the damaged line's capacity within days and return to full operations within six weeks.
"Oil prices also corrected for the third session as markets focused on alternative supply routes in the Middle East and signs that part of the East-West pipeline of Saudi Arabia could return within days," FXEmpire noted in its Friday metals forecast.
Metals Rebound Despite a Hiking Fed
The rally is notable because it comes days after the Federal Open Market Committee delivered its first rate increase since 2023 — normally a headwind for non-yielding assets. Policymakers voted unanimously to lift the overnight lending rate 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% range, and 16 of 19 officials now expect at least one more hike before year-end, according to the Fed's dot plot.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.01% on Wednesday, a 19-year high, before easing back toward 4.95% as crude retreated. That pullback in real yields, more than the Fed decision itself, appears to be what metals traders are responding to.
The Longer Tape
Year-over-year gains remain substantial: gold is up roughly 19% from a year ago near $3,660, while silver has advanced 57.7% over the same stretch. The shorter-term picture is choppier — gold is up 0.5% on the week but down 2.1% on the month; silver is up 3.9% on the week and down 0.8% on the month.
Technically, FXEmpire places gold's near-term resistance at $4,396 with a pivot at $4,331, and flags $4,530 as the breakout level needed to target $4,800. For silver, strong support sits at $62 with an extended target of $73.
Equities went into Friday with momentum. Thursday's session saw the S&P 500 rise 1.14% to 7,637.74 and the Nasdaq Composite gain 1.69% — their strongest daily advances in six weeks — while the Dow added 0.62% to 51,779.85.
The caveat is straightforward. "Gold and silver may remain volatile until Treasury yields remain elevated and the outlook for oil becomes more stable," FXEmpire wrote. Both conditions still apply.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (gold and silver price reports, Sept. 18, 2026), Fortune (current price of gold, Sept. 18, 2026), FXEmpire (Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Oil Pullback Eases Inflation Fears), CNBC (Treasury yield and Fed decision coverage), Saxo Bank (Morning Brew)