The two precious metals went their separate ways to start the week. Gold retreated as the dollar firmed and traders locked in last week's gains, while silver held its ground near multi-week highs — extending a divergence that has defined the 2026 metals market.
Gold Gives Back Friday's Advance
Gold traded at $4,342.78 per troy ounce on Monday, down $40.67 or 0.93%, according to Trading Economics data. The decline erased Friday's 0.77% advance, which had closed the metal at $4,380.
Fortune quoted spot gold at $4,360 per ounce as of 9:06 a.m. Eastern Time, down roughly $21 from Friday's level. In the futures market, Yahoo Finance reported that December gold contracts opened at $4,413 per troy ounce before easing to $4,394.80 by 9:14 a.m. ET, off about 0.3% from Friday's settlement.
Trading Economics attributed the pullback to "a strengthening dollar and investors taking profits following last week's gains." Yahoo Finance noted that gold had opened at its highest level in more than a week before slipping back into the prior week's range.
Even after Monday's decline, gold is up 15.89% year to date. Measured against a year ago, when the metal traded at $3,723 per ounce, gold has gained 17.11%, per Fortune. The one-month picture is weaker: futures are down 3.6% over that stretch.
Silver's Stubborn Strength
Silver told a different story. The metal changed hands at $66.06 per troy ounce, down just 0.27% on the day, after climbing to $66.60 earlier in the session — its highest level since September 10 — despite the stronger greenback, Trading Economics reported. Fortune pegged silver at $66.53 as of 9:20 a.m. ET.
The year-to-date gap is striking. Silver is up 49.93% in 2026, more than triple gold's 15.89% gain. Against year-ago levels of $44.06, silver has advanced roughly 51%. At Monday's prices, the gold-to-silver ratio sits near 65.7 — well below the elevated readings that characterized much of the past decade.
The Deficit Underpinning Silver
Silver's resilience rests partly on a supply picture gold does not share. The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026, released April 15, forecast that "the silver market is expected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026," projecting a shortfall of 67 million ounces.
The composition matters. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 2% to roughly 650 million ounces — a four-year low the Institute tied largely to the photovoltaic sector. Offsetting that, physical investment is projected to rise 20% to 227 million ounces, a three-year high. Total global supply is expected to increase 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces, a decade high, yet still short of demand.
Rates Remain the Overhang
Both metals face the same macro headwind. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first increase since 2023. Traders are pricing an 88% probability of another hike in December, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Trading Economics.
Higher nominal rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no yield. The partial offset came from crude's retreat below $100 a barrel, which eased near-term inflation worries and pulled Treasury yields lower across the curve — a dynamic that cushions non-yielding metals even as the Fed tightens.
For now, the market appears willing to pay up for silver's industrial and deficit story while treating gold as a rates trade.
Sources: Trading Economics (gold and silver commodity data, September 21, 2026); Fortune (current price of gold and silver, September 21, 2026); Yahoo Finance (gold prices today, September 21, 2026); The Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 (April 15, 2026); CME FedWatch.