The number Wall Street spent all summer watching finally printed. Brent crude for November delivery rose about 2.7% Wednesday to roughly $100.57 a barrel, crossing the triple-digit line for the first time since July. West Texas Intermediate for November climbed 2.03% to $94.92, with some quotes running near $95.69 as the session wore on. Murban crude, the Abu Dhabi grade that has to move through the Strait of Hormuz to reach buyers, jumped 6.83% to $118.30 — the clearest signal in the complex that traders are pricing a transit problem, not just a headline.
What Happened Overnight
U.S. Central Command said its forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, an action taken "in response to the IRGC targeting a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles." The warship evaded the attack and no American personnel were harmed, Centcom said. Four of the vessels — the M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1 and M/T Riesco — were struck in the Gulf of Oman, with a fifth, the M/T Derya, hit near Kharg Island, Iran's principal export terminal.
Iran responded by firing roughly 20 ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan. Jordanian defenses intercepted 18; the remaining two landed in unpopulated areas with no reported casualties. The IRGC claimed strikes on al-Azraq Air Base. The exchange came a day after Houthi attacks started fires at several Saudi energy facilities, forcing operational halts at the world's largest exporter.
Analysts cited by OilPrice.com warned that "bullish sentiment is building, and building fast, and there seem to be very few off-ramps to this conflict at the moment." Forecasters quoted by ABC News said crude could exceed $120 a barrel if tanker strikes and reduced Hormuz traffic persist.
Equities Slipped, But Barely
The S&P 500 closed at 7,655.63, down 17.89 points or 0.23%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 356.63 points, or 0.68%, to 52,429.44. The Nasdaq Composite lost 63.70 points, or 0.24%, to 26,357.72, and the Russell 2000 gave up 0.42% to 2,947.74. The VIX rose 2.67% to 16.14 — elevated, but nowhere near panic.
Gold moved the other way, adding 0.59% to $4,465.30 an ounce after opening the session at $4,399 on futures. Bitcoin rose 1.53% to $79,123.64. The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering near its highest level since November 2023, touching 4.812% earlier this week before settling at 4.786%.
The Fed Problem
An energy shock two days before an inflation print is the worst possible sequencing for a central bank already leaning hawkish. Traders now assign roughly 60% probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, up sharply from late August, when the odds of no move at all sat near 70%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole commitment to fighting inflation started that repricing; the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated it.
Friday's August CPI is the last major data point before the decision. Consensus looks for 3.3% year over year, down from 3.4% in July, with PPI expected at 5.4%. But the August survey period largely predates this week's escalation, meaning a cooler headline number would tell the committee less than usual about where prices are heading.
The pass-through is already visible. AAA's national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.15 a gallon on September 8, with California at $5.81. Crude at $100 does not stay in the futures pits — it arrives at the pump within weeks, and it arrives in core goods not long after.
Sources: CNBC, NBC News, OilPrice.com, Yahoo Finance, Forbes, ABC News, U.S. Central Command, AAA Fuel Prices